Iran continues to possess thousands of ballistic missiles and retains the ability to rebuild parts of its arsenal despite sustained US and Israeli strikes, according to American intelligence assessments cited by The Wall Street Journal.
The findings come as Washington pushes to secure a ceasefire aimed at stabilising the region, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and preventing further escalation involving Iran, US forces, and regional states.While US defence secretary Pete Hegseth recently said Iran’s missile programme is “functionally destroyed” and “almost completely ineffective,” intelligence assessments suggest a more nuanced picture.
Officials indicate that although more than half of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, damaged, or buried, many could be repaired or retrieved from underground storage facilities. Iran’s missile stockpile has also been reduced significantly, roughly halved during the conflict, but it still retains thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, US and Israeli officials to WSJ.
Underground infrastructure key to resilience
A critical factor in Iran’s continued capability is its network of underground missile complexes.
Several launchers remain trapped but intact beneath mountains or reinforced facilities. Officials say these could be dug out or restored over time.Israeli estimates suggest that around two-thirds of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers were taken out of action during the war. However, they caution that many systems are recoverable. Iran is also believed to still possess over 1,000 medium-range missiles out of an estimated 2,500 at the start of the conflict.
Drones depleted, cruise missiles remain
Iran’s drone inventory has been sharply reduced, with US officials estimating it now holds well under half of its pre-war stock of one-way attack drones. However, concerns remain that Tehran could source similar systems externally, including from Russia.The country also retains a limited number of cruise missiles, which could be used to target maritime routes in the Persian Gulf or US forces in the region if hostilities resume.
US claims success, analysts urge caution
Senior US officials maintain that the military campaign has significantly degraded Iran’s capabilities. Chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Dan Caine said over 13,000 munitions were used to strike missile sites, storage facilities, naval assets, and defence infrastructure.He stated that the strikes were aimed “to ensure that Iran cannot reconstitute the ability to project power outside their borders.”The White House also reiterated that US objectives had been achieved, with spokesperson Anna Kelly calling it a “profound military success.”However, analysts warn that Iran’s ability to recover, even partially, could sustain its role as a key regional power.
Long-term rebuilding uncertain
US analysts do not expect Iran to quickly return to pre-war missile and drone levels, given extensive damage to its defence industrial base. Israeli officials say Iran currently lacks the capacity to manufacture new missiles at scale.Future rebuilding will depend on external support, particularly from countries like Russia or China, as well as the trajectory of sanctions and export controls.
Strategic implications
Iran has historically relied on its missile arsenal to compensate for a relatively weak air force and to project power in the region. Even at reduced capacity, officials say its missile force continues to influence regional security dynamics.Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told WSJ, “One of the huge takeaways of this is that Iran, with a tiny fraction of its earlier capability, can still be the dominant actor controlling peace and security in the Gulf.”He added, “They have this great advantage that every day they don’t lose, they win, and every day we don’t win, we lose.”
