Elon Musk’s Grok chatbot has simulated the 2028 US presidential election, predicting a victory for JD Vance over Kamala Harris. The AI’s forecast, based on polls and betting odds, awarded Vance 326 electoral votes, suggesting a continuation of Republican leadership.
Election predictions have always been one of those areas that people look up to with mystery and interest; they also spark endless debates, from pundits on cable news to polls that shift like sand.This time, artificial intelligence is throwing its hat in the ring, with Elon Musk‘s Grok chatbot simulating the 2028 US presidential race in a way that’s got everyone talking. It’s a glimpse into how tech might influence our guesses about the future, using a combination of data, trends, and a dash of algorithm magic.
Grok AI predicts the 2028 US election: The President–VP duo it picked will surprise you (Photo via Grok AI)
Grok predicts 2028 US presidential election
A YouTuber from the Election Time channel fed Grok a mix of primary polls, betting odds, and state projections to forecast the 2028 US presidential election.
The detailed breakdown, shared in a viral video, pits top contenders and maps out a surprise winner. As the channel’s host says, “In this video, I asked Grok AI to predict the 2028 presidential election and give us a map forecast.”Grok, Elon Musk’s AI on X (formerly Twitter), crunched data on potential candidates without Donald Trump, who’s barred by the 22nd Amendment. That rule states, as per the National Constitution Center: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.
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Who were the top nominees from early polls by Grok
For Democrats, inputs included Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker, Cory Booker, and Tim Walz – names CNN has flagged as rumored frontrunners.Early February 12 polls showed Harris at 32% among Democrats, Newsom at 23.8%, with betting site Kalshi giving her a 56% chance to run again.Republicans showed JD Vance leading at 49.2%, Donald Trump Jr. at 19.5%, plus Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Robert Kennedy Jr.,
Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, and Vivek Ramaswamy. Kalshi pegged Vance’s GOP nomination odds at 46%.Grok simulated a Vance-Harris matchup, a popular hypothetical.
State-by-state projections by Grok
In Grok’s simulation, JD Vance secures a strong hold on reliably Republican states, including Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (aside from its second district), Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.According to Grok, Kamala Harris, meanwhile, was shown maintaining firm control over her core Democratic strongholds in California, Washington, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Maine’s first district. This lineup is similar to her 2024 performance, with the notable addition of Connecticut and Delaware as safe wins by margins exceeding 15 points.
Who, according to Grok, will be president?
Grok’s analysis awards JD Vance 326 electoral votes against Kamala Harris’s 212, a gain of 14 votes beyond Trump’s 2024 total. Vance captures all of Trump’s prior states, along with Minnesota and New Hampshire, meaning the US could face another four years of Republican rule.
