The nature of war has changed. It is still kinetic for the most part, but the rapid hybridisation of conflict has added a vicious nuance to it. The centre of gravity of war today is not just the enemy’s military.
It is also the enemy country’s population. Information Warfare is the lifeblood of war. If you can weaponise media and social media effectively, you will have a potent weapon in your arsenal … a weapon so powerful that the enemy will have no answer, no counter.Alot has been written about the Three Warfares Strategy and yet it is important that we revisit this doctrine, even if briefly. The People’s Liberation Army believes that warfare also exists beyond the kinetic.
Militaries will have their tanks, missiles, aircrafts and submarines and these platforms will be deployed, based on need. But it is also important to understand that when you damage the morale of the adversary, you degrade his will to fight.
Psychological Warfare is the first pillar of this strategy. It is understood that propaganda and disinformation can influence the behaviour of the adversary. This is warfare of the mind.
The second pillar of this strategy is Media Warfare in which traditional or mainstream media and social media are used to shape public opinion. Editorials, social media trends, AI generated images and videos and electronic media can be used to disrupt, degrade or manipulate the flow of information. Media and social media can be used to further a narrative.The third pillar of this strategy is Legal Warfare (lawfare) in which legal means are used to put pressure on the adversary.
This often results in an unmanageable diplomatic fallout, which may have unintended international repercussions.If the Three Warfares Strategy is comprised of three pearls, the string holding them together is disinformation. The ability to manipulate information, however, rests on the three pillars of narrative, credible carriers and repetition. These are the algorithms of deception.Firstly, narrative. It is important to have an outline of a story.
Any story will do as long as there is a palpable desire in some sections of society, however misguided, to believe that story. Their desire to believe this story is what drives the outline. Let’s call this the narrative. A narrative should ideally be able to trigger jealousy, anger, resentment, euphoria, suspicion, trust, love, faith or simply reinforce a held belief.
Any emotion is good, if that is an emotion you wish to reinforce and amplify.Secondly, credible carriers. These carriers are media platforms and social media handles. Their USP is that they inspire trust and you want to believe them; the reasons could vary. Maybe your grandparents read the same newspaper or you follow a person you greatly admire, on Instagram. The narrative floats out of nowhere and everywhere. What makes the carrier credible is your absolute intellectual surrender in front if it.
You do not question the carrier. It is gospel.Thirdly, repetition. “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it,” is a quote attributed to Hitler’s Minister of Propaganda Joseph Goebbels. Once you have a narrative and a credible carrier(s), all you have to do is repeat it, ad nauseum. In any field, success comes from consistency. Propaganda is no different.It is said that thousands of years ago, a wealthy trader led a caravan of a hundred bullock carts, escorted by a hundred soldiers from Shravasti, the capital of the Mahajanapada of Kosala to Mathura, the capital of the Mahajanapada of Surasena.He entered Mathura with great pomp and show and immediately went to the grain market where he started selling his grain at half the prevailing market price. Soon, the market was abuzz with whispers. There was a rich fool selling grain at half the market price. When asked the reason for his supposed largesse, the wealthy merchant responded by saying that he was not aware of the local prices. He was simply selling grain at the price that he sold it at the grain market of Shravasti, his home town.
That’s the actual price of grain, he added. The market was shocked. Our king is wicked, they whispered. He fleeces us, they were sure.The fame of the trader spread to all corners of the city and soon, he was invited to a feast by a member of the town’s elite. The trader carried rich gifts for his host. He soon had the ear of everyone at the feast. It was then that the trader started speaking about his own king. His king was brave and generous and he was a great patron of the arts.
No teacher or saint could pass by without receiving alms from the king. The king was just.
He had four sons, each as strong as an elephant. The king had an army whose numbers could not be counted and when this army marched, the dust from their feet was so great that it blocked out the sun.The trader was actually a spy for the Mahajanapada of Kosala. He set the narrative. He found credible carriers and those carriers would repeat his narrative for a long, long time.A Rand Corporation report on the PLA titled “People’s Liberation Army Operational Concepts” states:In his report to the 19th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress in 2017, President Xi Jinping called for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to complete its force modernisation effort by 2035 and field a world-class military capable of fighting and winning wars in any theatre of operations by 2050.Key findings
- Lacking recent examples of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in combat, the operational concepts developed in accordance with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) strategic guidelines provide the best indication of how the PLA would fight.
- Strategic guidelines direct the PLA to win “Informatised Local Wars,” recognising the centrality of information both as a domain in which war occurs and as the central means to wage military conflict when the dominant mode of warfare is confrontation between “information-based systems-of-systems.” One of the most notable efforts toward “informatisation” is the PLA’s establishment of the Strategic Support Force, which is responsible for integrating cyber data and capabilities with electromagnetic and space warfare information and operations.
- Three interlinked operational concepts likely underpin doctrine and establish principles by which the PLA will seek to accomplish its given missions through 2035, the date that President Xi Jinping assigned for the PLA to achieve “fully modernised” status: (1) War control (and, therefore, campaign success) depends on information dominance; (2) combat space is shrinking, but war space has expanded; and (3) target-centric warfare provides the means to defeat an adversary’s operational system.
The key phrase here is “Informatised Local Wars” and the PLA’s quest to develop the capability to win such wars.
This will be essentially done by understanding fault-lines of an adversary, let’s say, India. The target could be the upcoming farmer’s protest. Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools can be used to generate life-like videos in which two ministers are shown saying that all farmers will be arrested. Then, using specialised software, this AI generated, fake video can be geographically distributed, within seconds.
With hundreds of such videos being distributed every hour, carrying content that is extremely incendiary, it is only a matter of time before the reaction starts.This reaction to the AI generated fake videos will be real. Then, credible platforms will disseminate the videos of the reaction. If there is anarchy on the streets, it will be amplified. If the police use force to contain rioting, that response, however measured, will be amplified manifold.
A local issue will be made to look as if India has descended into chaos. Immediately, mainstream media will join in, duly fuelled by social media.
And then, social media will distribute clips from TV debates. In many cases, AI will be used to put words into the mouths of panelists; words that were never spoken.A few weeks back, Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra addressed Chinese tourists in perfect Mandarin.Except that she does not speak a word of that language. Using generative AI, she reacted to a video in which Chinese tourists were shown being scammed in Thailand. The Chinese were reassured after seeing the Thai PM’s video. That is the power of Artificial Intelligence. Now for a moment assume that an AI generated video showed Paetongtarn, speaking perfect Mandarin, ordering the Chinese to leave Thailand in the next few hours.
Imagine the sheer scale of chaos that would have ensued. That is the power of Information Warfare.Information Warfare is essentially an offensive doctrine and must be understood in the context of the larger environment where information overload is the norm and attention spans are reducing. Such an environment is a fertile ground for misinformation and propaganda.About Information Warfare, NATO says: Information Warfare is an operation conducted in order to gain an information advantage over the opponent.
It consists in controlling one’s own information space, protecting access to one’s own information, while acquiring and using the opponent’s information, destroying their information systems and disrupting the information flow. Information warfare is not a new phenomenon, yet it contains innovative elements as the effect of technological development, which results in information being disseminated faster and on a larger scale.Awareness of information warfareAt present, interest in information warfare has significantly increased in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. Russia has been influencing the Ukrainians and the international community in order to promote its own version of events. This was achieved using both traditional media controlled by the Russian authorities and social media, which were a field of operation of the troll factories.CyberwarfareCyberspace and the related area of new technologies provide an important field for Information Warfare. Cyberwar activities may consist of cyber-attacks, destroying information systems of the opponent, but these may also involve so-called social cyber-attacks, by creating in people’s minds a specific image of the world, consistent with the goals of the information warfare conducted by a given country.Information war over the internetThe Internet enhances and expands the possibilities of data acquisition, information defence and information disruption, and makes it easy to reach both the citizens of a given country and the international community.
Given the speed of communication, wide coverage and low cost of (dis)information campaigns, social media play a crucial role. Social networking sites are also a valuable source of information on the target groups to which (dis)information activities are to be addressed.Information warfare over the Internet uses, among others:
- Troll factories – entities employing people who post comments on the Internet in line with the goal of the ordering party, using fake profiles in social media.
- Bots – programs sending out messages automatically, e.g. in response to the appearance of a keyword.
- Fake news – messages intended to mislead media users.
The journalists’ perspectiveMedia not only report on war conflicts, but they also become the targets of attacks involving, for example, disinformation through the dissemination of fake news.
Journalists must be extremely careful in verifying information related to international relations, as the messages they receive may be part of disinformation activities. Another problem is often related to the hacking of websites whose profile is in opposition to the activities of the state conducting information warfare.The perspective of media usersMedia users become victims of information warfare conducted using both the so-called traditional media and the Internet.
The signs of propaganda and disinformation are present in numerous media messages, including traditional media as well as social media. Media users are becoming increasingly aware that they are the objects of (dis)information activities aimed at affecting their perception of reality. With growing distrust towards information appearing in official circulation, Internet users are turning to alternative sources of information, including civil media.
An important element of individual resistance to propaganda and disinformation is to escape the “information bubble” (“echo chamber”, a situation of a restricted access to information other than those provided by algorithms based on the user’s previous activity) by diversifying the sources of information and acquiring information other than that suggested by algorithms regulating social media.While an Information Warfare ecosystem exists in India, it needs to dovetail into our methodology of warfighting.
In understanding IW, we must first accept that asymmetry in war will always exist and if by asymmetry we mean the power differential in the battlespace, we must also understand that this asymmetry largely exists in the kinetic domain. Once you move beyond the kinetic, the asymmetry gap narrows down drastically.
In 2007, Frank Hoffman originally defined hybrid war as being the incorporation of a, “range of different modes of warfare including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics and formations, terrorist acts including indiscriminate violence and coercion and criminal disorder”.
Since then, the doctrine has evolved and today constitutes media, social media, NGOs and other branches of civil society.Information Warfare is a sub-set of Hybrid Warfare. Therefore, we can reasonably conclude that IW is an important bridge that narrows the “kinetic-capability asymmetry” between unequal adversaries. In such a case, the ‘adversary’ or target group is not only the military of the adversary but also its population.
If war requires a “whole-of-nation” approach, it stands to reason that the nation itself becomes a target.That brings us to an important question, even if it is rhetorical. What does China fear? More than the aircraft carriers of the US Navy and the Mountain Divisions of the Indian Army, China fears the Chinese people. It is this attitude that is China’s greatest faultline. No west-based social media platform works in China.
If a rare platform does, it is heavily monitored. In such a case, the foreign entity’s servers must be located in China, and must be controlled by Chinese nationals.
So, why this irrational fear?“Let the states of equilibrium and harmony exist in perfection, and a happy order will prevail throughout heaven and earth, and all things will be nourished, and flourish,” said the ancient Chinese philosopher, Confucius.A society can exist in harmony only when everyone knows his place and does his duty. Now, what if this harmony was somehow put in distress? This is the reason why the servers must be in China. Servers mean data. Data is information. And, information is a weapon, which in wrong hands, causes disharmony.Many students of IW claim difficulty in accessing Chinese social media. Firewalls and security protocols are cited as reasons.
Sun Tzu says, “All war is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”China has a border with fourteen countries and has a border (land and sea) dispute with seventeen countries. You need not have a border with China to have a border dispute with it.
It has disputes with Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Singapore, Brunei, Nepal, Bhutan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar and Tibet. The dispute with Russia is thought to be settled, but it festers. On four separate occasions, Vladamir Putin has handed over 173 square kilometres of its territory to China, to buy peace.
The problem is slightly bigger. China claims six million square kilometres of Russian land.Towards the end of the Opium Wars and during the weak Qing dynasty rule, China ceded over 1.4 million square kilometres to Tzarist Russia. This included areas East of the Ussuri and north and east of the Amur River, right up to the Pacific Coast, in what was at that time called Outer Manchuria. This area is not part of Russia’s Far East. This area was taken over and annexed to the Russian Empire in the Aigun (1858) and Beijing (1860) treaties.
After the Russian Revolution, this area was absorbed into the USSR. In 1919, a promise was made by the Russians to the Chinese that they would return their territories. The Russians forgot the promise. The Chinese have longer memories.The aim of this rather elaborate history lesson is to tell you that the Chinese have painful, festering wounds, too. But the road to China’s fault lines passes through other countries, not through China itself.
And China’s biggest fear is information ‘misuse’. China has seen over a dozen uprisings by its own citizens, in the past seventy-five years. Tiananmen Square (4th June, 1989) and Hong Kong (2020) are some of the topics that The Guardian tried asking Chinese AI platform DeepSeek about.
The answers were the same, “Sorry, that’s beyond my current scope”.India cannot do what China can, and neither can any other democracy.
But it is important that we find ways and means to shrink the military asymmetry that exists between us. China’s economy is USD 19 trillion. India’s GDP is touching USD 4 trillion. Chequebook to chequebook, there is no competition and as Chanakya wisely stated “From the strength of the treasury, the army is born”. However, social influence and cognitive biases are real.
If we can weaponise them, they can be used with devastating effect.
All you need is a narrative, credible carriers and amplification by constant reinforcement.It was the summer of 2020 and I was in Chandimandir, visiting my army friends. We were standing outside a friend’s house. Soon, others joined in. The topic soon turned towards Information Warfare. An officer was visibly shocked by what I was suggesting. “There has to be honour in war,” he said. It is exactly this kind of thinking that we must abandon.
There is nothing honourable in war, except perhaps the conduct of soldiers.Information Warfare gives you a tool not just to mould the flow of data but also the power to influence your adversary’s perception and analysis of that data.The days of kinetic conflict are not over. In fact, the argument for more firepower has never been more valid. But the nature of war has changed. While armies are fighting armies on the ground, populations are fighting populations in the cyber arena.
Both kind of wars are critical. Both wars have the power to bend armies to their will. You cannot have an army high on morale and a population whose morale is crashing. The source of ‘will to fight’ is often those whom you are fighting for.
The fate of both are inexorably intertwined.Once a population loses faith in its army, the war is over. That is the weakest link and this link deserves our undivided attention. We must fight to win. And we must fight with whatever hurts our enemy the most. Sometimes, it is a ballistic missile. Sometimes, it’s a Twitter handle.This article was originally published in The Chanakya Diaries
