As we look ahead to the monsoon of 2026, Bihar is bracing for troubling times, with the Indian Meteorological Department predicting below-average rainfall. This troubling forecast follows a decade marred by insufficient precipitation, with seven of those years affecting crucial Kharif crops such as paddy and jute.
Patna: Bihar is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the south-west monsoon season (June to Sept) in 2026, according to the first phase of forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).Data indicates that the state has experienced below-normal rainfall in seven of the last 10 years. The normal rainfall—defined as the 30-year average—is pegged at 992.2 mm for 2026. A deficit monsoon could adversely affect the production of Kharif crops, particularly paddy and jute, which depend on consistent water availability.Official data from 2016 to 2025 shows that 2020 recorded the highest rainfall at 1,244.9 mm, with a positive departure of 24%, while 2022 saw the lowest at 661.8 mm, marking a deficit of 33%.
In 2025, the state again recorded below-normal rainfall, receiving 681 mm, a departure of -31%.Rainfall distribution across districts has been uneven. Kishanganj has consistently recorded the highest rainfall due to its proximity to the Himalayas, while districts such as Arwal, Saran, Sheohar, Muzaffarpur and Lakhisarai have recorded the lowest rainfall over the past decade.Meteorologist Sanjay Kumar of IMD Patna said Bihar’s rainfall largely depends on low-pressure systems forming over the north Bay of Bengal, which in recent years have often shifted towards coastal states like Odisha, reducing precipitation in the state.
Meteorological factors such as the possible development of El Nino during the monsoon season could delay and weaken rainfall. Other influencing factors include climatic conditions over the Indian Ocean and slightly below-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in recent months, he said.A weaker monsoon may also affect temperature regulation due to reduced cloud cover and easterly winds, potentially prolonging heat conditions. In addition, insufficient rainfall could limit the recharge of small water bodies and groundwater, raising concerns over water availability in the months ahead.The IMD is expected to issue an updated monsoon forecast later this month.
